As the year ends, the numerals ahead may feel future-ish, as if we leaped across time, traveling faster than we should or want. Twenty-twenty-four. How did that happen? Events far back seem solid, the middle is blurred, and the future fills with our expectations.
This year, two SpaceX Starships launched on the heels of NASA’s 2022 first launch of its Space Launch System. Will this be noted as the start of the era of Starships? Or will we look back on it as the start of an era of many options worldwide for getting to and from orbit?
Yet in the vein of endings, NASA’s work with industry to de-orbit the International Space Station took on an air of realness -as did China’s Tiangong space station.
Ahead, we have Artemis II, akin to the Apollo 8 crewed lunar orbital mission, scheduled for a year from now (“No, this time, really!” says Lucy.) Also at bat is a Vulcan rocket carrying the first of many small cargo lunar landers from companies working with NASA, more broadband constellations, and a NASA budget reveal unlikely to be good news.
If we pause, count, and graph, what do we see?
What do you see?
Here we have a dramatic increase in commercial launches led by SpaceX if not necessarily a clean-cut case for market elasticity – if we define market elasticity as an increase in the number of units sold (to others) when prices drop. However, SpaceX continues to impress, building up its Starlink constellation and launching its Falcon rockets every few days. Now if only as many new customers showed up for launches sold at SpaceX prices (which are not sold at cost.)
We thought we had busy years launching Space Shuttles, but just counting off US launches, we see SpaceX leaving everyone else behind – again. This is not about a launch now, then another some weeks later, adding a dot after some empty space. Zoom in – these points overlap, and this is good.
Which brings us to reusability. Could it have happened any other way? The oddity is not that a high launch rate system ended up being mostly reusable, it’s that any skepticism remains about reusable rockets. Apparently, when you can’t beat ‘em, say what works so well for others isn’t necessarily for you. SpaceX is now turning boosters around predictably in under two months and reusing boosters about ten times.
And a Happy New Year to all!
Zapata Talks NASA 